[Institutional Research] Macro Liquidity Buffer, Key Resistance Breakthrough, and Semiconductor Value Chain Investment Strategy

## 1. The Essence of Big Tech AI CAPEX Amid Macro Volatility Recently, global financial markets have experienced heightened credit spread tensions and discount rate pressures as **the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.95%** and **WTI crude oil touched $100 per barrel**. Nevertheless, despite these macroeconomic headwinds, **the rapid stabilization of the USD/KRW exchange rate, which dropped vertically by -94 KRW (-6.6%) from its yearly high of 1,435 KRW down to the 1,341 KRW level 1 month ago**, serves as a powerful supply-side momentum catalyst driving foreign net inflows into key domestic semiconductor enterprises. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Big Tech capital expenditures (CAPEX) centered on AI by Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon show no signs of abating. For Big Tech companies, building AI infrastructure is not merely an R&D investment, but **the core means of establishing an exclusive platform moat** that will determine survival during this computing paradigm shift. At a time when AI productivity gaps dictate mid-to-long-term corporate survival, companies continue to execute record-high quarterly funding to secure generative AI accelerators even in a high-interest-rate environment. ## 2. Convergence of Blackwell Architecture and HBM3E Supply Chains NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerator, **Blackwell (B200/GB200)**, delivers dramatically improved computational performance compared to the preceding Hopper architecture. To support this, **the integration of 5th-generation HBM (HBM3E) 8-high and 12-high products**, known for ultra-high data transfer speeds, is mandatory. Consequently, resolving **TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging bottlenecks** alongside the stable procurement of high-performance HBM has emerged as the paramount global challenge for the AI ecosystem. This structural growth momentum is not merely speculative; it manifested clearly over the past month in institutional quantitative macro model screening charts as a stepwise higher-low structural pattern. In particular, key value chain stocks today **strongly broke through multi-month overhead structural resistance lines accompanied by trading volumes exceeding 20-day averages by 3.5x, fully realizing Price Acceptance**. ## 3. In-Depth Analysis of Core Tickers ### 1) SK Hynix (000660.KS) **Business Moat and Competitiveness** SK Hynix has established a robust technological moat in the global memory semiconductor market by **virtually monopolizing the supply of NVIDIA's next-generation Blackwell-bound HBM3E 8-high and 12-high products**. Backed by overwhelming yield stability in its MR-MUF (Mass Reflow Molded Underfill) process technology, the company maintains a technology gap of over a year against competitors. **Peer Synchronization and Timeseries Trajectory** Driven by a powerful triangular alliance with NVIDIA and TSMC, the company is perfectly synchronized with the global AI semiconductor rally. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties over the past month, it has raised its lows step-by-step, accelerating institutional and foreign co-purchasing. **Quantitative Chart Patterns and Practical Trading Strategy** According to institutional quantitative macro screening, the stock **broke upward through the strong long-term overhead resistance level of 195,000 KRW alongside explosive volume**, receiving **complete Price Acceptance** from the market. - **Strategic Entry Point**: **Pullback fractional accumulation zone at 192,000 KRW ~ 195,000 KRW where former resistance flipped into support** - **Risk Management Line**: **Final stop-loss baseline set at the lower risk line of 181,000 KRW** ### 2) Hanmi Semiconductor (028300.KS) **Business Moat and Competitiveness** Monopolizing **the Dual TC Bonder market**, which is core equipment for HBM manufacturing, Hanmi Semiconductor directly reaps the benefits of SK Hynix's HBM capacity expansion CAPEX. Through high barriers to entry in thermal compression bonding technology, it records an overwhelming operating margin exceeding 50%. **Peer Synchronization and Timeseries Trajectory** Horizontally synchronized with SK Hynix's rising HBM3E utilization and expansion news, it has demonstrated a textbook upward-sloping pattern over the past month, progressively elevating its lows. **Quantitative Chart Patterns and Practical Trading Strategy** Today, alongside multiple times its normal trading volume, it recorded **a long bullish candle completely breaching the 142,000 KRW multi-month consolidation trading range ceiling**. - **Strategic Entry Point**: **Support-test pullback zone of 139,000 KRW ~ 142,000 KRW following the resistance breakout** - **Risk Management Line**: **Stop-loss execution upon downward breach of the core support line at 131,000 KRW** ### 3) NVIDIA (NVDA) **Business Moat and Competitiveness** Supported by the robust software lock-in effect of the CUDA ecosystem and **the overwhelming tensor core performance of next-generation Blackwell B200/GB200 compute chips**, NVIDIA maintains over 90% market share in AI accelerators. **Peer Synchronization and Timeseries Trajectory** Bolstered by continuous Big Tech CAPEX expansion announcements, it leads U.S. tech stock gains and has restored a stepwise upward trend as noise surrounding Blackwell mass-production schedules dissipated. **Quantitative Chart Patterns and Practical Trading Strategy** Under institutional quantitative macro models, **the long-term resistance line of $132 was breached with heavy volume**, entering a trend acceleration phase. - **Strategic Entry Point**: **Resistance-to-support retest zone of $130 ~ $132** - **Risk Management Line**: **Lower support price level at $121** ### 4) TSMC (TSM) **Business Moat and Competitiveness** Alongside world-leading foundry manufacturing capabilities, TSMC holds **monopolistic dominance in CoWoS advanced packaging processes**, which package HBM and GPUs into a single chip. **Peer Synchronization and Timeseries Trajectory** As both the primary bottleneck and primary beneficiary of surging NVIDIA Blackwell shipments, it is recording alpha returns far exceeding market averages. **Quantitative Chart Patterns and Practical Trading Strategy** Alongside record-high quarterly earnings and upward CAPEX revisions, it **strongly breached the upper resistance ceiling of $188, completing Price Acceptance**. - **Strategic Entry Point**: **Overhead resistance price testing zone around $185 ~ $188** - **Risk Management Line**: **Lower support price level at $174** ## 4. Practical Portfolio Management Guide Despite macroeconomic interest rate and oil price volatility, the current market displays a clear leading-stock rally where capital concentration accelerates toward companies possessing **exclusive moats in Blackwell mass production and HBM3E supply chains**. Utilizing the **Price Acceptance zone certified by upward breakouts of long-term resistance lines** on institutional quantitative macro screening charts, investors should approach retest pullbacks with fractional accumulation strategies while exercising strict mechanical risk management by honoring **lower risk line stop-loss thresholds**.