Japan Pre-Market Morning Briefing: Quant Screening and Macro Alignment for Tokyo Open

### 1. Global Macro Environment and Tokyo Open Direction Overnight US equities closed mixed as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 5.26%, reflecting persistent high-rate concerns. In the foreign exchange market, the USD/JPY rate hovered around 152.4, providing a favorable environment for export-oriented firms through moderate currency depreciation. Comprehensive scanning of JP market data reveals a clear overarching theme connecting capital inflows and outflows. Breakout leaders are concentrated in the banking and transportation equipment sectors, driven by export margin maximization and high-value supply capabilities. Conversely, lagging stocks share vulnerabilities in rate-sensitive and legacy retail sectors, exhibiting ongoing downtrends. ### 2. Core Momentum Stocks Aligned with Common Thesis - **Naikai Zosen (7018.T)**: Trading at ¥13,570 with a +1.95% daily change and 1.1x volume expansion, maintaining an upward trajectory supported by shipbuilding momentum. The upper resistance stands at ¥14,180, while the lower support level is ¥20,810 (Note: adjusted to ¥12,910 based on data). Pullbacks to the support line offer structured entry opportunities. - **Awa Bank (8345.T)**: Priced at ¥2,810, showing a 10.7% gain over the past month with 1.2x volume expansion, testing resistance at ¥2,929. Net interest margin improvements amid higher rates support its fundamental outlook, with a key support level at ¥2,714. - **Tokyo Electron (8035.T)**: Surging +6.47% to ¥12,580 with 1.1x volume expansion, acting as a primary semiconductor index leader. Approaching the upper resistance of ¥12,600, requiring monitoring for short-term profit-taking absorption. ### 3. Downside Risk and Restricted Trading Candidates - **Haiburu (3133.T)**: Priced at ¥43, down 37.7% over the past month in a prolonged downtrend with weak volume (0.6x). A breach of the ¥42 support level necessitates strict risk management and stop-loss execution. - **G-To (7603.T)**: Trading at ¥35 with an 18.6% monthly decline, facing persistent downward pressure from retail demand slowdowns. Rallies toward the ¥37 resistance should be treated as selling opportunities. ### 4. Portfolio Management Principles With USD/JPY established in the 152 range, investors should maintain a selective buying strategy focused on export leaders and banks. Chase buying near upper resistance levels is strictly prohibited; instead, accumulate positions during volume-backed pullbacks. For lagging assets, reduce exposure during any dead-cat bounces and execute immediate stop-losses if key support levels are breached to prioritize capital preservation.