Japan Pre-Market Morning Briefing: Selective Approach on Export Majors Amid FX and Macro Volatility

### 1. Global Macro Environment and Tokyo Open Directional Check With the US 10-year yield holding high near 5.24% and the USD/JPY rate fluctuating around 152.4 yen, macro caution regarding foreign exchange volatility has intensified overnight. This macro landscape imposes a limited burden on the broader index, yet it elevates the possibility of selective inflows into export majors and high-dividend value stocks that benefit from currency effects. A comprehensive scan of today's total chart screening data for the Tokyo market reveals a clear common thesis governing capital flows. Upward breakout leaders are concentrated in the banking, retail, and securities/commodity futures clusters, driven by business models focused on maximizing high-exchange-rate export margins and high-value product supply capabilities. Chart-wise, these names exhibit an average 1-month return of +5.0% and a 20-day average volume surge of 1.1x, attempting to settle above upper resistance levels . Conversely, downward breakdown candidates share vulnerabilities in retail and information/communication sectors due to growth valuation discounting from prolonged high interest rates and sluggish forward demand, continuing a downtrend with an average 1-month decline of -15.2%. ### 2. High-Conviction Leading Stocks Aligned with the Common Thesis Bank of Iwate (8345.T) trades at ¥2,826, maintaining a steady upward trend of +10.1% over the past month. Recording a volume multiplier of 1.0x against the 20-day average, it is consolidating energy with an upper resistance at ¥2,929 and a lower support at ¥2,808. Namura Shipbuilding (7014.T) trades at ¥4,760 with a daily change of -0.52%, supported by expectations surrounding Japan's shipbuilding revival policies. Monitoring the breakout of the upper resistance at ¥5,170 is critical, while approaching near the lower support of ¥4,720 for fractional buying is valid upon defense. Toyota Motor (7203.T) trades at ¥2,882, undergoing a consolidation phase testing support after correcting -7.5% from recent highs. Supply battles are expected between the upper resistance of ¥2,926 and the lower support of ¥2,881, favoring fractional accumulation near core support levels over aggressive chase buying. ### 3. Downside Volatility Expansion and Restricted Buy Candidates Haebum (3133.T) trades at ¥47, plunging -29.9% over the past month with continuous selling pressure near new lows. The separation from the upper resistance at ¥63 has widened, requiring objective observation of support defense at ¥42. Picosera (6731.T) trades at ¥99, down -3.88% today under heavy overhead supply. With volume surging 1.7x relative to the 20-day average, expanding downside volatility dictates strict risk management to prevent further losses. abc (8783.T) trades at ¥45, showing a persistent downtrend of -27.4% over the past month. A breach of the ¥44 support line risks further liquidity outflow, necessitating the strict exclusion of new long positions. ### 4. Portfolio Management Principles for the Session As the USD/JPY rate settles in the 152.4 yen range, attention must be paid to the decoupling between exchange-sensitive export heavyweights and domestic value stocks. Avoid chase buying and instead adopt a conservative phased-entry strategy after confirming price support at key levels for breakout candidates backed by 20-day average volumes. Strictly prohibit bottom-fishing for downward-breaking equities and execute immediate portfolio streamlining if prices breach established stop-loss thresholds.