Japan Pre-Market Morning Briefing: Focus on Exporters and Banks Amid Stable FX

### 1. Global Macro Environment and Tokyo Open Direction: Wall Street closed mixed with persistent high-rate sentiment as the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.18%. In the FX market, USD/JPY hovered around the 152.4 level, maintaining a weak-yen trend. This macro setup provides a supportive liquidity backdrop for export-oriented large caps benefiting from FX rates and financial names favored by higher yields. Overall indices are projected to start with stable support centered around energy, gas, defense, and high-dividend value stocks. Screening data indicates that breakout leaders are concentrated in Banking and Transportation Equipment, featuring export- and margin-maximizing business models. These names posted an average 1-month gain of +9.0% with a 1.4x surge in 20-day volume, attempting upper resistance breakouts. Conversely, breakdown candidates are limited to specific small caps in Retail and Electrical Machinery, forming a downtrend due to valuation discounting and cooling demand. K-type polarization is clearly observed within identical sectors based on fundamentals. ### 2. High-Liquidity Leading Stocks Aligned with Common Thesis: Amsu Bank (8345.T) recorded a current price of ¥2,907 and a daily return of +6.13% in the banking sector. It surged +19.6% from its base over the past month with a 1.7x volume spike, approaching upper resistance at ¥2,912. Phased buying near ¥2,850 is preferred over aggressive chasing. Namura Shipbuilding (7014.T), belonging to Transportation Equipment, posted a current price of ¥4,880 and a trading value of 30.1 billion yen. Supported by governmental shipbuilding revival momentum, it maintains a steady upward trajectory. Investors should target phased entries based on the lower support of ¥4,835 ahead of testing the ¥5,170 resistance. Okinawa Financial Group (7350.T) stands at ¥2,828 with a +4.41% return, aligning with banking strength. Since the current price matches the upper resistance, a pullback strategy near the ¥7,450 support level is maintained. ### 3. Downside Volatility Expansion and Restricted Stocks: Haibun (3133.T) in the retail sector recorded ¥43 and a -6.52% daily return. It exhibits a classic downtrend with a -40.3% monthly drop and a 2.2x volume surge, signaling sustained selling pressure. New purchases are strictly restricted given the risk of breaching the ¥42 support. Jiesto (7603.T) trades at ¥34 with a -5.56% decline, testing new lows. With a -20.9% monthly drop and absent buying interest, defense of the ¥33 support level must be monitored. ABC (8783.T) in other financials trades at ¥46 flat, but has slumped -31.3% over the past month. Heavy resistance at ¥47 dictates a risk-management stance of selling into rallies. ### 4. Daily Portfolio Operation Principles: With USD/JPY settling in the 152 range, portfolio weight should be restricted to leading Transportation Equipment and Banking stocks exhibiting proven margin expansion. Chasing stocks nearing upper resistance is prohibited in favor of phased entry tactics. For breakdown candidates, strict stop-loss discipline and weight reduction on bounces must be applied to protect capital. Flexible hedging should accompany the range-bound movements of major index anchors like Tokyo Electron and Toyota Motor.