### 1. Identification of Core Common Factors and Money Flow Thesis in Tokyo Market:
On September 25, 2026, the Tokyo market closed with the Nikkei 225 up 850.21 points (+1.30%) at 66,364.20, and the TOPIX up 5.50 points (+1.29%) at 430.30. Amid stable USD/JPY exchange rates around 152.4, foreign and institutional buying concentrated on major export and financial equities.
Screening results indicate that upward breakout leaders clustered heavily in Banking (60%), Retail (20%), and Securities/Commodity Futures (10%). These entities secured earnings momentum driven by export margin maximization under a weak yen and monopolistic product supply capabilities.
Technically, breakout issues recorded an average 1-month return of +9.0% with a 1.4x surge in trading volume relative to the 20-day average. They exhibited a common trend-expansion pattern by successfully breaching and establishing above their upper resistance lines .
Conversely, downward breakdown candidates comprised Retail (5), Information & Communication (2), and Electric Appliances (1) sectors, vulnerable to prolonged high interest rates and slowing forward demand. They maintained a 1-month average downtrend of -13.2%, experiencing downward attempts on 60-minute charts and breaching 1-month core support lines .
### 2. Quantitative Analysis of Core Leading Stocks Evidencing the Common Thesis:
- **The Akita Bank, Ltd. (8345.T)**: Operating in the Banking sector, closed up +6.13% at ¥2,907 with trading value reaching ¥16.1 billion. It recorded a 1-month gain of +19.6% alongside a 1.7x surge in 20-day average volume, testing its upper resistance at ¥2,912 with a lower support line at ¥2,745.
- **Procrea Holdings, Inc. (7384.T)**: A leading Banking stock, closed +4.26% higher at ¥5,630 with ¥8.3 billion in trading value. Over the past month, it surged +24.1% with 1.6x average volume, nearing its upper resistance level of ¥5,680 while maintaining support at ¥5,470.
- **The Hokuyo Bank, Ltd. (8524.T)**: Belonging to the Banking sector, closed up +4.32% at ¥1,375 backed by ¥18.4 billion in trading value. It sustained a 1-month return of +8.9% with 1.1x volume expansion, trading near its upper resistance of ¥1,376 with support anchored at ¥1,321.
### 3. Downward Breakdown Stocks and Watchlists Exhibiting Common Risk Factors:
- **Haebum (3133.T)**: Positioned in the Retail sector, closed down -6.52% at ¥43. It recorded a 1-month plunge of -40.3% with persistent selling pressure at 2.1x average volume, requiring strict risk management with an upper resistance of ¥50 and lower support at ¥42.
- **G-7 Holdings Inc. (7603.T)**: Classified under Retail, closed down -5.56% at ¥34. Down 20.9% over the past month, it displays structural weakness without volume support, testing support levels near ¥33 with resistance at ¥37.
- **abc (8783.T)**: In the Other Financials sector, closed flat at ¥46. Experiencing a 31.3% drop over the past month, it lacks dip-buying interest within a tight band between resistance at ¥47 and support at ¥45.
### 4. Practical Trading Strategies for the Tokyo Market:
For upward breakout leaders, maintain a trend-following strategy centered on banking and export value chains backed by volume expansion. Approach resistance-level stocks with phased buying only after confirming consolidation above 상단 저항선.
For downward breakdown issues, apply a sell-on-rally principle to reduce portfolio exposure. Strictly enforce stop-loss lines and prohibit additional purchases for lagging companies where support lines have broken.
TSE · 일본 마감
2026-09-25
·
BATUR QUANT RESEARCH
Tokyo Market Close: Nikkei Reclaims 66k with Capital Inflows into Banking and Export Sectors
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- • The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.30% at 66,364.20 and TOPIX rose 1.29% to 430.30.
- • Capital concentrated heavily in banking and export-driven value chains, breaching key resistance lines.
- • Interest-rate sensitive domestic issues and slowing demand small-caps suffered downward breakouts.
GLOBAL MACRO SNAPSHOT
RORO: 49.8pt (Neutral)
연준 순유동성
$5770.0B
미 10년물 금리
5.11%
WTI 원유
$93.09
원/달러 환율
1358.5원
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