Japan Pre-Market Morning Briefing: Yen Depreciation and Capital Flows into Banking and Shipbuilding Sectors

### 1. Macroeconomic Environment and Tokyo Open Direction: Tokyo equities opened amid elevated macroeconomic volatility, with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.96% and USD/JPY hovering around 152.4. This environment supports export-oriented shipbuilding and value sectors benefiting from currency depreciation. Screening data shows breakout momentum concentrated in banking and transport equipment sectors. These issues exhibit an average 1-month gain of +8.3% and trade volumes 1.6 times their 20-day average, testing upper resistance levels . Conversely, breakdown candidates are concentrated in retail and electrical equipment sectors. Facing high interest rate pressures and sluggish demand, these equities show a 1-month average decline of -10.7% and risk breaching key support levels . ### 2. Core Momentum Stocks: - **AWAHOSHI BANK (8345.T)**: Traded at ¥2,778 (+2.55%) with ¥11.6 billion in volume. Up 21.1% over the past month, testing the upper resistance at ¥2,825. Chasing is discouraged; split accumulation near the support level of ¥2,666 is advised. - **NAMURA SHIPBUILDING (7014.T)**: Traded at ¥5,070 (+0.20%) with ¥68.2 billion in volume. Backed by government support for the shipbuilding industry, maintaining a steady upward trend of +12.9% over 20 days. Upper resistance is at ¥5,140, with support at ¥4,390. - **NAIKAI ZOSEN (7018.T)**: Traded at ¥13,800 (-1.43%) with ¥2.4 billion in volume. Up 16.9% over the past month, testing resistance at ¥14,140. Pullback entries near the support level of ¥13,010 are recommended upon confirmation. ### 3. Downside Risk Stocks: - **HABU (3133.T)**: Traded at ¥51 (-1.92%) with ¥400 million in volume. Down 27.1% over the past month in a persistent downtrend near new lows. New purchases must be restricted. - **GIETO (7603.T)**: Traded at ¥34 (-2.86%) with ¥100 million in volume. Down 22.7% over the past month with mounting downside pressure. Strict risk management is required if support at ¥33 fails. - **PIXERA (6731.T)**: Traded at ¥99 (-1.98%) with ¥100 million in volume. Down 8.3% over the past month, testing support at ¥96. Position reduction is warranted if support breaks. ### 4. Portfolio Management Principles: With USD/JPY at 152.4, selective trading should focus on breakout momentum in export-oriented shipbuilding and financial sectors using predefined support levels rather than chasing prices. New entries in downtrending retail and electrical equities must be completely avoided. Existing positions must adhere to strict stop-loss and support breach guidelines to prioritize capital preservation.