### 1. Core Common Factors and Money Flow Thesis in Tokyo Market:
On September 18, 2026, the Nikkei 225 closed up +882.70pt (+1.38%) at 65,018.95pt, while the TOPIX index closed down -1.10pt (-0.26%) at 426.30pt. The USD/JPY exchange rate hovered around 152.4 yen, exerting mixed effects on major exporters.
Screening results indicate that breakout leaders concentrated in Banks (approx. 50%) and Transportation Equipment (approx.
20%). These sectors shared business characteristics of maximized export margins under a high exchange rate and high-value order momentum.
Technically, these leaders recorded an average 1-month return of +8.3% with a 1.6x surge in average 20-day volume, successfully breaching upper resistance lines .
Conversely, lagging issues shared vulnerabilities in Retail and Electric Appliances, facing margin pressures from prolonged high interest rates and slowing forward demand, resulting in a 1-month average decline of -10.7% and breaches of key 1-month support lines .
### 2. Quantitative Analysis of Core Leading Stocks:
- **Ashikaga Holdings / Banks (8345.T)**: Closed at ¥2,778 (+2.55%). Surged 21.1% over the past month with 1.4x volume, targeting upper resistance at ¥2,825. Support is set at ¥2,666.
- **Naikai Zosen (7018.T)**: Transportation Equipment sector, closed at ¥13,800 (-1.43%). Up 16.9% over the past month, testing resistance at ¥14,140 with 0.6x volume. Support is ¥13,010.
- **Prologue Holdings (7384.T)**: Banks sector, closed at ¥5,430 (+2.65%). Gained 24.1% over 1 month with 1.3x volume, nearing resistance at ¥5,470. Support is ¥5,230.
### 3. Downward Breaking Stocks and Risk Focus:
- **Haebum (3133.T)**: Retail sector, closed at ¥51 (-1.92%). Plunged 27.1% over 1 month with 1.6x volume, continuing a downtrend toward support at ¥50.
- **G-Esto (7603.T)**: Retail sector, closed at ¥34 (-2.86%). Fell 22.7% over 1 month under persistent selling pressure. Support is located at ¥33.
- **Pixera (6731.T)**: Electric Appliances sector, closed at ¥99 (-1.98%). Down 8.3% over 1 month, testing support at ¥96 with 1.4x volume.
### 4. Practical Trading Strategy for Tokyo Market:
For breakout leaders in banking and transportation, apply a staged pullback buying strategy while monitoring volume expansion. Implement risk controls near resistance levels.
For lagging sectors, avoid new long positions as downtrends persist. Enforce strict stop-loss disciplines for stocks breaking key support levels.
TSE · 일본 마감
2026-09-23
·
BATUR QUANT RESEARCH
[Tokyo Market Close] Nikkei Reclaims 65,000 Amid Inflows into Financials and Export Leaders
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- • Nikkei 225 closed up 1.38% at 65,018.95 while TOPIX edged down 0.26% to 426.30 on September 18, 2026.
- • Breakout leaders in banking and machinery surged past key resistance levels on expanding volume driven by strong margin momentum.
- • Lagging retail and electronics issues faced margin pressures and breached key support levels amid slowing demand.
GLOBAL MACRO SNAPSHOT
RORO: 64.3pt (Moderate Risk-On)
연준 순유동성
$5869.1B
미 10년물 금리
4.96%
WTI 원유
$89.97
원/달러 환율
1364.4원
리포트 핵심 공략 & 분석 종목군
QUANT CONFLUENCE
Batur Global 퀀트 터미널
16,345개 전 종목의 핵심 저항선·지지선 및 수급 지표를 실시간 인터랙티브 차트로 확인하세요.
통합 매크로 대시보드
연준 순유동성, RORO 4대 Pillar, 5대 테일리스크 매트릭스를 인터랙티브 차트로 확인하세요.