### 1. Identification of Core Common Factors and Money Flow Thesis:
On September 22, 2026, the Nikkei 225 closed up 1.38% at 65,018.95pt, while the TOPIX ETF closed down 0.26% at 426.30pt. The USD/JPY hovered around 152.4, and the US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.01%.
Screening data indicates that breakout leaders concentrated in banking (50%), securities (20%), and retail (20%). These entities benefit from high-exchange-rate export margins and positive news catalysts, drawing institutional capital.
Technically, these leaders posted an average 1-month gain of +8.3% with a 1.6x volume surge over the 20-day average, successfully testing upper resistance . Conversely, lagging equities in retail, telecommunications, and electronics shared vulnerabilities to high interest rates and slowing demand, posting an average -10.7% decline over the past month.
### 2. Quantitative Analysis of Core Leading Equities:
Bank of Iwate (8345.T) demonstrated strong momentum in the banking sector, closing at ¥2,778 (+2.55%) with ¥11.6 billion in trading value. It surged +21.1% over the past month on 1.4x volume, targeting resistance at ¥2,825 with support at ¥2,666.
Okinawa Financial Group (7350.T) closed at ¥7,960 (+1.27%) with ¥8.1 billion in trading value. It maintains a steady upward trajectory with an upper resistance target of ¥8,280 and a key support level at ¥7,450.
Procrea Holdings (7384.T) closed at ¥5,430 (+2.65%), up +24.1% over the month, backed by 1.3x relative volume. It is currently testing resistance at ¥5,470, with key support established at ¥5,230.
### 3. Downside Breakout and Vulnerable Equities:
Haibum (3133.T) declined to ¥51 (-1.92%), extending its monthly loss to -27.1% amid heavy selling pressure and testing critical support at ¥50.
Geesto (7603.T) closed at ¥34 (-2.86%), down -22.7% over the past month, remaining in a clear downtrend with support at ¥33.
Picocera (6731.T) traded at ¥99 (-1.98%), facing persistent overhead resistance and testing support at ¥96.
### 4. Practical Trading Strategy for the Following Session:
For breakout leaders, execute scaled dip-buying strategies while monitoring volume sustainability and respecting established support levels. Avoid chasing assets without confirmation of price acceptance above resistance.
For lagging equities, maintain a defensive stance and avoid capital allocation. Strictly enforce stop-loss thresholds on assets displaying sustained downward momentum to protect portfolio capital.
TSE · 일본 마감
2026-09-22
·
BATUR QUANT RESEARCH
Tokyo Market Close: Nikkei 225 Secures 65,000 Handle Amid Sector Rotation into Banks and Export Leaders
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- • The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.38% at 65,018.95 amid a stable 152.4 yen/dollar exchange rate. Banking and export-oriented sectors drove the breakout momentum with elevated volume. Conversely, select consumer and lagging equities faced downside pressure.
GLOBAL MACRO SNAPSHOT
RORO: 62.8pt (Moderate Risk-On)
연준 순유동성
$5868.9B
미 10년물 금리
5.01%
WTI 원유
$93.12
원/달러 환율
1361.4원
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