### 1. Identification of Core Common Factors and Money Flow Thesis:
On the 18th (local time), the New York regular market saw buying support as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stabilized at 4.94% and WTI crude oil adjusted toward $100 per barrel.
Easing tightening concerns led to a rebound led by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 1.69%.
Screening results indicate that upward breakout leaders concentrated in semiconductor, power infrastructure, and export clusters. These companies share fundamental traits of maximizing margins through favorable exchange rates and high-value product supply capabilities.
Technically, they recorded an average 1-month return of +8.5% and a 1.8x surge in 20-day average volume, successfully breaching upper resistance lines . This signals institutional capital shifting toward sectors with high earnings visibility.
Conversely, downside breakout groups concentrated in secondary battery materials, high-multiple growth stocks, and domestic retail. Facing valuation discounts from prolonged high rates and slowing demand, they showed a 1-month average decline of -12.4% and support line breaches.
### 2. Quantitative Analysis of Core Leaders:
- **NVIDIA (NVDA)**: Earnings momentum persists, driven by dominant supply capabilities in high-value semiconductors for AI demand. Trading volume surged to 1.9x the 20-day average, breaking upper resistance. A phased entry near $115.00 is advised upon confirmation of support.
- **NextEra Energy (NEE)**: Order wins driven by surging demand for power infrastructure and clean energy highlighted the stock. It recorded a 1-month return of +9.2%, breaking resistance. Entry is recommended after a support test at $78.50.
- **Caterpillar (CAT)**: Institutional capital concentrated on global infrastructure expansion and export margin maximization benefits. It secured upward momentum with a 20-day volume surge, setting a baseline entry at $340.00.
### 3. Downside Breakout Stocks and Risk Targets:
- **Albemarle (ALB)**: Downward pressure mounted due to slowing demand for battery materials and high-interest rate burdens. It dropped -13.5% over the past month, breaching core support. The stop-loss threshold is set at $110.00.
- **Tesla (TSLA)**: Valuation discounts on high-multiple growth stocks persisted amid slowing demand and margin pressures. It triggered short-term 60-minute D_ATTEMPT signals below key support. The stop-loss threshold is set at a breakdown of $210.00.
### 4. Global Portfolio Implications:
Capital concentration in semiconductors and power infrastructure in New York positively impacts export-driven stocks in domestic and Asian markets. Allocating capital to sectors backed by exchange rate benefits and earnings visibility remains prudent.
Simultaneously, strict reduction is required for rate-sensitive and valuation-pressured domestic and material sectors. Investors must balance macro volatility by managing portfolio duration and maintaining cash reserves.
US · 미국 마감
2026-09-18
·
BATUR QUANT RESEARCH
[Wall Street Market Close] Nasdaq Rallies 1.69% Amid Yield and Oil Stabilization, Capital Flows to Semiconductors and Power Infrastructure
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stabilized at 4.94% and oil prices cooled, driving the S&P 500 up 1.1% and Nasdaq up 1.69%. Capital concentrated in semiconductors, power infrastructure, and high-margin exporters breaking resistance with heavy volume. Conversely, secondary battery materials and high-multiple growth stocks faced downside pressure amid prolonged high-rate burdens.
GLOBAL MACRO SNAPSHOT
RORO: 63.0pt (Moderate Risk-On)
연준 순유동성
$5868.9B
미 10년물 금리
4.94%
WTI 원유
$100.3
원/달러 환율
1379.5원
리포트 핵심 공략 & 분석 종목군
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