### 1. Identification of Core Common Factors and Money Flow Thesis
The USD/KRW exchange rate closed at 1,379.5, and the US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.94%, reflecting continued macro volatility. Domestic indices closed mixed amid fluctuating foreign investor flows.
Breakout leading stocks concentrated in semiconductors, power infrastructure, and exporters. These businesses secured earnings momentum based on export margin maximization from high exchange rates and high-value product supply capabilities.
Technically, these stocks showed an average 1-month return of +8.5% and a 1.8x surge in 20-day average volume, successfully breaching upper resistance lines .
Conversely, breakdown candidates in secondary battery materials, high-multiple growth stocks, and domestic retail shared vulnerabilities regarding high-interest-rate valuation discounts and margin pressures from slowing demand, maintaining a 1-month average downtrend of -12.4%.
### 2. Quantitative Analysis of Core Leading Stocks
- **Samsung Electronics (005930)**: Benefited from improving memory semiconductor conditions and currency effects. Backed by supply chain expansion news, trading volume surged over 1.8 times the 20-day average, breaking the upper resistance line .
- **LS ELECTRIC (010120)**: Showed strength driven by overseas order momentum in power infrastructure and high-value power grid equipment supply capabilities. Maintained an upward 1-month return trend while testing resistance.
### 3. Downside Breakdowns and Risk-Targeted Stocks
- **EcoPro BM (247540)**: Suffered from electric vehicle demand slowdown concerns and valuation burdens from high interest rates. Continued a 1-month downtrend, breached the core support line , and requires strict risk management.
- **Lotte Shopping (023530)**: Burdened by sluggish domestic consumption and margin compression worries. Kept negative 1-month returns with selling pressure dominating the price action.
### 4. Trading Strategy Based on Thesis Continuation
For breakout leaders, maintain trading stances based on volume expansion and resistance confirmation. Compress portfolios toward export and infrastructure stocks with high earnings visibility.
For breakdown stocks, apply disciplined risk management and refrain from catching falling knives as support lines collapse.
KRX · 한국 마감
2026-09-18
·
BATUR QUANT RESEARCH
Institutional Korea Market Close Report: Macro Volatility and Sector Concentration
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- • KOSPI closed mixed amid macro volatility including a 1,379.5 KRW/USD exchange rate and 4.94% US 10-year Treasury yields. Buying concentrated on export and infrastructure sectors showing technical resistance breakouts. Growth-sensitive and domestic sectors faced continued downside pressure.
GLOBAL MACRO SNAPSHOT
RORO: 63.0pt (Moderate Risk-On)
연준 순유동성
$5868.9B
미 10년물 금리
4.94%
WTI 원유
$100.3
원/달러 환율
1379.5원
리포트 핵심 공략 & 분석 종목군
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