[Japan Pre-Market Strategy] Yen at 152 Level Supports Breakout in Semiconductor and Export Sectors

### 1. Global Macro Environment and Tokyo Market Opening Direction: Following mixed closes in U.S. markets, Nikkei night futures are pointing toward a flat-to-modest opening. The USD/JPY exchange rate holds firm at the 152.4 level, continuously supporting expectations for improved export profitability. As the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 4.94%, capital is concentrating on large-cap exporters with visible earnings rather than valuation-burdened growth stocks. Today's Tokyo opening is projected to show a moderate gap-up led by export-related sectors benefiting from currency dynamics. Scanning the overall JP market chart data identifies a clear common thesis driving fund flows. Breakout leaders concentrate in semiconductors, power infrastructure, and export sectors, characterized by maximized export margins and high-value product supply capabilities. Charts exhibit a common trend expansion pattern with a 1-month average return of +8.5% and volume surging 1.8x the 20-day average above upper resistance . Conversely, breakdown candidate groups share vulnerabilities in secondary battery materials and high-multiple growth stocks under prolonged high-interest rate margin pressures, breaching 1-month core support lines. ### 2. Core Momentum Stocks Matching the Common Thesis: - **Tokyo Electron (8035)**: Institutional capital concentrates here due to semiconductor equipment supply strength and currency tailwinds. Chase buying at the open is restricted; phased accumulation is valid after confirming support above the upper resistance line, with a support price set at 28,000 yen. - **Hitachi (6501)**: Power infrastructure order momentum and high-value portfolio transition are translating into earnings visibility. A phased buying strategy following the 20-day volume surge and subsequent pullback is appropriate, with a downside support line at 3,400 yen. - **Toyota Motor (7203)**: Expectations for upward operating profit revisions driven by the 152 yen USD/JPY rate are supporting the share price. The primary entry timing is during the test of support near previous highs following the opening gap, with a risk management line at 2,600 yen. ### 3. Downside Volatility Expansion and Restricted Stocks: - While explicit breakdown signals are limited in current screening data, domestic retail and certain secondary battery material stocks with high valuation multiples remain vulnerable to macro rate shifts. Such groups face inevitable price adjustment pressure upon failed 60-day moving average upside attempts. - New purchases must be strictly prohibited for stocks where front-end demand slowdown and margin compression factors remain unresolved. Existing holders must adhere to mechanical stop-loss principles based on breaches of 1-month core support lines. ### 4. Portfolio Management Principles for the Day: Today's portfolio maintains a core weight in semiconductor and infrastructure export stocks backed by proven currency effects and earnings momentum. Phased entries at predetermined support price levels take precedence over chase buying. Concurrent currency hedging strategies should be applied against rising exchange rate volatility, and stocks breaching technical support lines must be removed from the portfolio without exception. Strict adherence to risk management thresholds is required to navigate volatile market conditions.